Aftab Ahmed and allrounder Mahmudullah are the only changes in the Bangladesh squad for the three ODIs against Ireland. They replace Syed Rasel and Mosharraf Hossain, who featured in the recent one-day series against South Africa.Aftab has recovered from the injury he suffered after top-edging a Jacques Kallis delivery onto his face during the Chittagong Test earlier this month. “Aftab is a mainstay in our middle-order and one of the more experienced members of the side,” chief selector Rafiqul Alam said. “He has been declared 100% fit by the physio. His medium-pace bowling will also be useful.”Mahmudullah returns after having been discarded following a solitary ODI appearance against Sri Lanka last July. “He brings in a bit of variation as he bowls offspin. He is also a capable batsman,” Rafiqul said. “Mosharraf hasn’t done what we expected from him against South Africa and Rasel I would say was unlucky as we could only pick a squad of 14.”We have gone for a team that has a lot of options in bowling, especially with the spin attack. The fact that batsmen like Shakib (Al Hasan) and Mahmudullah can be considered as front-line spinners as well is an added advantage for us.”The Ireland series presents captain Mohammad Ashraful with a great opportunity to pick up his first win – Bangladesh have lost all his previous nine games in charge. The first ODI is in Mirpur on Tuesday.Squad: Mohammad Ashraful (capt), Mashrafe Mortaza, Tamim Iqbal, Junaid Siddique, Aftab Ahmed, Nazimuddin, Shariar Nafees, Shakib Al Hasan, Dhiman Ghosh (wk), Abdur Razzak, Shahadat Hossain, Mahmudullah, Farhad Reza, Raqibul Hasan
Trinidad & Tobago Development XI 62 for 3 beat Canada 85 for 5 by 3 wickets (D/L method) Canada women’s tour started with a loss to Trinidad & Tobago Development XI at the National Cricket Centre in Couva on Sunday but they put up a respectable showing. The Development XI went on to win by 3 wickets under Duckworth/Lewis during a storm-affected game, which started late through rain.Amid the showers, Canada advanced to 85 for 5. Captain Mona Persaud top-scored with 24 not out, while Joanna White and Monali Patel each scored 14 runs. T&T’s Amanda Samaroo, who starred for the T&T Under-17s in Canada last August, took 2 for 11 from six overs.Eleven overs into the reply, with T&T on 42 without loss, a storm sent the players rushing for the pavilion. When play resumed, T&T needed 20 more runs off 10 overs. Persaud took two wickets, both bowled and although Canada took one more wicket, T&T ended on 63 for 3, the game ending on a wide.Despite the rain, the players of both sides enjoyed the experience and are set to meet again next weekend. By that time, Canada will hope to have much more practice and acclimatisation.
Mumbai’s medium-pacers bowled a clever mix of bouncers, slower balls and cutters to restrict Rajasthan to a 103, the lowest first-innings total of the IPL, on a two-paced pitch at the DY Patil Stadium before some sensible batting sealed a hat-trick of triumphs for the home team. In what was their second successive upset victory, after taming Delhi on Sunday, Mumbai prevailed over the table leaders yet again.The pitch wasn’t conducive to stroke-play: balls stopped, kept low and batsmen didn’t find their timing easily. The experienced trio of Shaun Pollock, Ashish Nehra and Dwayne Bravo were canny with their variations but it was impressive to see the unheralded duo of Dhaval Kulkarni and Rohan Raje break the back of Rajasthan’s line-up.Sachin Tendulkar wasn’t fit for today’s game but he had the satisfaction of seeing a wicket fall almost every time the commentators cut to have a word with him. He was particularly thrilled with the performance of Kulkarni and Raje, young turks who utilised the conditions perfectly. Nehra finished as the most effective bowler, adding two tailenders to Yusuf Pathan’s wicket early on to finish with 3 for 13; Bravo showed the power of the slower ball; and Pollock yet again proved the value of experience.The fact that the Mumbai wicketkeeper Yogesh Takawale pouched three skiers, when top-edges ballooned off the bat, showed the slow nature of the surface. Even Mumbai’s batsmen weren’t fluent with their strokeplay but a few lucky breaks ensured a comfortable victory. Shane Watson struck twice – taking the wicket of Sanath Jayasuriya who pulled one to deep square leg – and Shane Warne struck with his very first ball, removing Takawale with a slider. However, Robin Uthappa’s 34 was enough to take Mumbai past the finish line.The match, though, was decided by the end of Rajasthan’s innings. Pollock, whose decision to field first appeared to be a bold one, nipped out Graeme Smith early though even he would have been surprised at the manner of the dismissal. Smith backed away, took a stride out of his crease, missed an in-cutter from Pollock and kept walking. Had he looked back, he would have seen Takawale fumble the ball but the fact the he kept going allowed an easy stumping.It was only the 53-run stand between Swapnil Asnodkar and Watson that made some sort of recovery for Rajasthan. Both batsmen put away loose balls and Watson even showed the value of hitting straight against the spin of Sanath Jayasuriya. It took an injudicious swipe from Watson to end the stand – Bravo working him out from around the wicket – and what followed was a forgettable collapse.Raje forced Mohammad Kaif and Asnodkar to go for big shots and had them caught in the deep, while Kulkarni removed Ravindra Jadeja and Shane Warne with short balls. Jadeja top edged while going for the pull and was athletically caught by Takawale, while Warne’s attempted slap through the off side ended in an easier skier for the wicketkeeper.The tail didn’t have much of a chance against the slower balls – indicated aptly by a tantalising one from Bravo that ended the innings. It was Rajasthan’s first defeat in six games and they slipped to second place, behind the Kings XI Punjab, in the points table.
Tuesday 14 July Start time 0900 local time (0700 GMT)1:33
Agarkar: India must give Sandeep Sharma and Manish Pandey a chance
Big picture
India have achieved their main goal – sealing the series – so the third and final ODI provides scope for blooding a couple of uncapped players. Zimbabwe, who are in the midst of an eight-match ODI losing streak, have little but pride to play for.Individually, Zimbabwe’s players have shown that this team definitely contains talent. But they haven’t been able to pull all three facets of the game together. In both matches so far, India were offered a glimpse of Zimbabwe’s weaknesses, and despite the fine margin of their victory on Friday, they have generally looked the better side.Yet one feels Zimbabwe aren’t all that far behind this Indian team. Given a fully fit squad, in home conditions, at least one win is a distinct possibility. Unfortunately, the Zimbabweans have been hobbled by injury and have probably already blown their best chance of breaking their losing streak. Sean Williams is nursing a knee problem and is unlikely to play tomorrow.While the bowling has fired, India’s middle order still appears vulnerable. Manoj Tiwary, Robin Uthappa and Kedar Jadhav have managed a combined 58 runs in a total of six innings. If Zimbabwe are able to exploit this, especially given the absence of the series’ leading run-scorer Ambati Rayudu, they may yet be able to pull off a win.
Form guide
(Last five completed matches, most recent first) Zimbabwe: LLLLL India: WWWLL
In the spotlight
In the absence of Solomon Mire, and with Elton Chigumbura playing primarily as a batsman, Zimbabwe needed an allrounder to balance their side. They appear to have found one in Chamu Chibhabha, who has contributed with both bat and ball in this series. Batting is his stronger suit – he’s averaged 44.42 in ODIs in 2015 – but the pitch at Harare Sports Club also suits his medium-pace bowling.The pressure is building on India’s middle-order batsmen. With this series billed as something of an audition for a slot in the first XI, Manoj Tiwary, Robin Uthappa and Kedar Jadhav have averaged 12.00, 6.50 and 10.00 respectively. India have still managed to win both games, but they’ll want more from this trio in the final match.
Team news
Zimbabwe’s hand has been forced by injuries to key members of their squad. Opening bowler Tinashe Panyangara sustained a side strain in the first match, and batsman Sean Williams injured his right knee in the second. With the help of painkillers and heavy strapping, Williams batted during Zimbabwe’s chase, but team physio Anesu Mupotaringa suspects patella tendonitis. Williams went for scans on Monday morning and it’s unlikely the team management will risk aggravating his injury.So Zimbabwe may want to give players such as Chris Mpofu, Prosper Utseya and Roy Kaia a run. Craig Ervine may also be back to full fitness, as he underwent a test, including sprints, with no apparent discomfort on Monday afternoon.Zimbabwe (probable): 1 Vusi Sibanda, 2 Chamu Chibhabha, 3 Hamilton Masakada, 4 Elton Chigumbura (capt), 5 Roy Kaia/Craig Ervine, 6 Sikandar Raza, 7 Richmond Mutumbami (wk), 8 Prosper Utseya, 9 Graeme Cremer, 10 Neville Madziva, 11 Chris Mpofu.A right quadriceps injury to Ambati Rayudu will also necessitate changes to India’s XI. Twenty-year-old wicketkeeper Sanju Samson has been called into the squad and it suggests pressure on Robin Uthappa’s place. With the series sealed, India might think about offering debuts to Manish Pandey and Sandeep Sharma, and perhaps give Mohit Sharma some match practice ahead of the T20s. India (probable): 1 M Vijay, 2 Ajinkya Rahane (captain), 3 Manish Pandey, 4 Manoj Tiwary, 5 Kedar Jadhav, 6 Sanju Samson/ Robin Uthappa (wk), 7 Stuart Binny, 8 Harbhajan Singh, 9 Mohit Sharma, 10 Bhuvneshwar Kumar, 11 Sandeep Sharma.
Pitch and conditions
A third, fresh pitch will be used for this match, and in appearance it is very similar to the first two: dry, with a modest grass covering. It should be reasonably good for batting, with the side batting first looking to score at least 250. The pitch is on the far right of the square, and so the short boundary to the west may affect team tactics. Another bright, sunny day is expected.
Stats and trivia
Zimbabwe’s win-loss record is 6-22 when chasing scores of between 240 and 275 in ODIs since 2005.
The very first ODI played at Harare Sports Club was between Zimbabwe and India in October 1992. India have played 17 ODIs here, and have won 12 times.
Bhuvneshwar Kumar is the leading wicket-taker in this series, with five wickets at an average of 13.60 and an economy rate of 3.40.
Quotes
“We’re just going to go out there and play for pride, and for our supporters as well.” “I asked him why I was being congratulated and he told me I had been selected to the Indian team.”
The Sheffield Shield final could soon become a thing of the past. Although there are no immediate plans to scrap the five-day decider from Australia’s domestic fixture, Cricket Australia has indicated that it might be squeezed out of the schedule in the coming years if the Big Bash League continues to thrive and expand.Cricket Australia’s chief executive James Sutherland and outgoing chairman Wally Edwards have both questioned the value of the Shield final, which was described by Edwards as being too often “a bad advertisement for the game”. The concept of the top two teams playing off in a final was introduced in 1982-83; until then the Shield was awarded to the team that finished on top of the table.While the final theoretically gives the second-placed team a chance of winning the title, the advantages given to the top team – home advantage and needing only to draw to win the Shield – have led to very few away wins. The last time the away team managed to claim the title was in 2004-05, when New South Wales scraped home by one wicket over Queensland at the Gabba.Not just that, the home side needing only to draw has often meant dull, defensive batting and ridiculously long innings. At the Gabba in 2005-06, Queensland finally declared their first innings at 6 for 900, with Victoria, who bowled 242 overs, having no hope of winning. Edwards said he would prefer a return to the old system, which was in place when he had been a state player.”I don’t think it plays any real part in our season,” Edwards said about the final after Cricket Australia’s AGM in Melbourne. “I think, and this is just me, when I played Shield cricket, we didn’t have a Shield final. The games were played in two rounds – home and away. The best side wins. It seems to be the fairest way.”And to me, it feels the Shield final over many years has proven itself to be a bit of a non-event to be honest. There have only been three or four good Shield finals, the rest of them have been shockers; a bad advertisement for the game. I think it confuses the back end of our season. I think the best team should win in Shield cricket. We play ten games, which should sort it out.”The final is still very much part of the schedule for this season but how long it can remain so will likely depend on whether Cricket Australia looks to expand the BBL in coming years. Should the BBL add extra teams or rounds, its schedule may well swell into February, and if any other cricket had to make way, the Shield final would likely be first on the chopping block.”I think Wally is right, if you do have a look through history the Shield finals have been absolutely dominated by the home team or a long draw,” Sutherland said. “I think it is very rare – maybe 5% of the time or something – that the away team has actually won. So, from that point of view, it has never been a great spectacle. And I think that’s part of where we continue to review and assess the mix of content.”At the moment it is there and I don’t think we’d change it unless there was a good reason to change that. But at the same time, we’re in a very fortunate position at the moment of having a burgeoning domestic Twenty20 competition which is in big demand. At some stage in the future, we’ll be looking at ways in which we can expand that, whether that’s expansion in the number of matches or teams or what have you, and that might put pressure on other parts of our program.”
The ten days between the end of the Nagpur Test and the end of the Delhi Test did not shake the world. All that moved was the margin of South Africa’s defeat. Like the decimal point in a series of zeroes, it can seem insignificant, but look a bit closer, and it is not.For India, it was the difference between domination and complacency. Between going second on the rankings without the risk of being overtaken – based on the outcome of the Australia-West Indies series – or just temporarily going second. Of driving home the point that it was possible to bat on their pitches, or becoming victims of their own circumstances.South Africa too had many things to prove, except that they were on the other side. They were dominated and their lead at the top has been cut, but to a small extent, some of their players conquered an Indian pitch after having their pride pulled out from under them on the previous three Tests. “We understood the series was gone so we were hoping to gain something from this game and I think we gained something in terms of batting,” Hashim Amla said.In terms of runs, you would not say South Africa gained anything. They totaled under 150 in both innings as none of their batsmen reached 50 and their highest partnership was just 44. But in balls faced and minutes in the middle, South Africa gained confidence.In total, their big three – Amla, AB de Villiers and Faf du Plessis – faced more than 600 balls and spent 12-and-a-half hours at the crease in the second innings. Amla faced 244 balls in 12 minutes short of five hours, de Villiers faced 297 balls in 15 minutes short of six hours and and du Plessis faced 97 in three minutes short of two hours. All of them batted in bubbles that seemed impenetrable as they dead batted deliveries in a show of the discipline that South Africa have lacked on this tour.”Nobody wants to block everything but the need of the time was for us to try and bat as long as we can and take as many risky shots out of the equation. It was unnatural to block as many full tosses and half-volleys as we did,” Amla said. “But there is no selfishness involved in trying to do what needs to be done for the team.”What the team needed was not an attempt at victory, but a reminder of their valiance. “The determination was never lost. Every Test match is a very important game so you don’t just throw your wicket away or submit the result. You try and fight for everything,” Amla said. “I don’t think anybody thought we would win. We felt that was the best way to save the game. It would have been easy to say, ‘Let’s go out and have some fun and get some runs under our belt,’ but that gains nothing.”Instead it was about honing their mental game by “committing to the plan.” That was something South Africa had not done with any great success in this series. They committed to preparing for spin, playing the ball as they saw it and attacking, but those plans did not work. Should they rather have committed to the ultra-conservatism that they employed here throughout the series? Not unless they only wanted to drag out the inevitable, according to Amla.”If you block, you may survive but you are not going to score runs. I don’t think we would have changed much,” he said. “Maybe a few different shots but you need to score runs when you bat, especially in the first innings.”The other side of cricket is that you need to take wickets and at least there, South Africa did their bit.”Our bowling has been exceptional on this tour. It has been a shining light to see Morne Morkel lead the attack in the absence of Dale Steyn and Vernon Philander,” Amla said “He has bowled some of the best spells of fast bowling I have seen in the subcontinent. And then the way Kyle Abbott came in; Kagiso came in and did well and our spinners did the job I am happy with the way our bowling responded in these conditions.”
Azhar Ali has agreed to continue as Pakistan’s ODI captain after a request by him to resign, over the presence of Mohammad Amir at the training camp in Lahore for the national team, was rejected by the PCB.”Azhar Ali met the chairman PCB [Shaharyar Khan]. He tendered his resignation. The chairman didn’t accept his resignation, Azhar Ali agreed and he will continue as captain,” the PCB said in a statement.Azhar, along with Mohammad Hafeez, had refused to join the camp earlier, but had finally relented following a meeting with Shaharyar Khan. ESPNcricinfo understands that Azhar had agreed to join the camp, but had said he would need time to decide on his role as captain.Amir is in the selection mix for the first time after his five-year ban for spot-fixing in the 2010 Lord’s Test. He was one of the 26 probables named for Pakistan’s pre-season conditioning camp. Azhar and Hafeez were originally scheduled to join the camp after completing domestic matches, but they did not do so. Azhar went on to state that he would not attend the camp “as long as Amir is there”. After their meeting with Khan, though, the PCB chairman had said: “I do respect their concerns but some of them, I told them, are not acceptable. So they understood and confirmed that they are on the same page with us.”
A four-for from left-arm spinner Gurinder Singh and three wickets from captain Manisankar Murasingh helped Tripura bowl Services out for 163 in Guwahati to seal a 219-run win, their first Ranji Trophy win in four seasons. Tripura’s last victory in the tournament came against Himachal Pradesh in December 2012. This is only their eighth win in 153 Ranji matches since their debut in 1985-86; they have lost 99.Tripura began the fourth day on 280 for 1 with an overall lead of 322. The overnight pair of Udiyan Bose and wicketkeeper Smit Patel, who had scored centuries on the third day, quickly took the side past 300. Bose fell for 165 but Patel (127*) steered the side ahead before they declared their second innings at 340 for 3. Services, set 383 to win, were reeling at 75 for 5 by the 24th over. Rahul Singh resisted with 51, but with only tail-end batsmen to keep him company, Tripura had little trouble dismissing Services by the 55th over.Haryana captain Mohit Sharma cut through Hyderabad‘s lower order to help set up his side’s eight-wicket win in Jamshedpur. Hyderabad were in danger of being dismissed for much lower than the 224 they eventually scored in their second innings, but got there through fifties from wicketkeeper K Sumanth (55) and Chama Milind (66*). The pair added 83 runs for the seventh wicket, but the honours on the day belonged to Mohit, who wrapped up four of Hyderabad’s last five wickets to finish with 5 for 26 in 14 overs.Left with 85 to get, Haryana chased the target down in 16.4 overs. Wicketkeeper Nitin Saini scored 45, opening the innings.Half-centuries from Srikar Bharat and Hanuma Vihari, and important contributions from DB Ravi Teja and Ashwin Hebbar helped Andhra salvage a draw against Chhattisgarh in Kalyani.Following-on, Andhra resumed on the fourth day at 122 for 4, needing another 73 runs to wipe out the deficit and make Chhattisgarh bat again. Vihari and Ravi Teja helped the side past that milestone, before a 53-run partnership between Hebbar and Murumulla Sriram took Andhra past 250. Andhra ended the day on 282 for 8. Chhattisgarh took 3 points by virtue of the first-innings lead.
Cricket South Africa has banned Gulam Bodi for 20 years from participating in any international or domestic match, or any cricket activity other than anti-corruption programs after he admitted to contriving or attempting to fix matches during the 2015 Ram Slam T20 series.Five of those years will be suspended on the condition that Bodi commits no further offences under the code and demonstrates to CSA’s reasonable satisfaction that he has actively and constructively participated in corruption-related player education programs when asked to do so.Following a CSA investigation which they first made public on November 6 last year, when they issued a press release warning players to be vigilant after they had received information that an international syndicate was attempting to corrupt domestic cricket, Bodi was charged on December 31 with several counts of breaching the anti-corruption code. The charges go back to September 2015. Bodi’s confession came 18 days later and CSA issued their sanction a week after that.CSA would not be drawn on whether other players are under investigation but confirmed that the case is not closed. They could not put a timeframe on when they expect to conclude. They may also be compelled to provide their findings on Bodi to the police, who could launch an investigation of their own.”Under the circumstances, we are satisfied with the sanction. All we have to do now is comply,” Ayoob Kaka, Bodi’s lawyer told ESPNcricinfo.Asked whether Bodi was aware of, or concerned, that CSA would lay a complaint with the police, Kaka said: “It will be up to CSA to decide whether they launch a complaint. We’ve co-operated with them so we are not too worried about that.”Despite the time span over which they charges are spread – which include the Africa Cup, a T20 tournament for provincial amateur teams and African national sides and the Ram Slam – South Africa’s T20 tournament which was broadcast in India for the first time last year – CSA chief executive Haroon Lorgat said the body believed no matches had been fixed.”The evidence that we’ve got and the confessions made by Bodi suggest we got him in a planning phase and no fixes were active.” Lorgat said at a press briefing during the Centurion Test. “Several players rejected Bodi’s approaches.”Whether those players will face any action is not known. Under section 2.4.4 of the ICC’s Anti-Corruption Code, failure to “to disclose to the ACSU (without unnecessary delay) full details of any approaches or invitations received by the Participant to engage in Corrupt Conduct,” is an offense. CSA have their own anti-corruption code, based on a template of the ICC’s code, which contains an equivalent clause.Like the ICC’s code, CSA’s contains sanctions which range from no ban to a maximum lifetime ban. Without going into the details of what Bodi has admitted to, CSA decided on his punishment based on several factors which they outlined in a proceedings explanation on their website.Among the factors considered was the extent of corrupt activities, the damage to the integrity of the game, the length of Bodi’s career and his seniority, the fact he had had education on anti-corruption and public sentiment. That was weighed up against Bodi’s co-operation and confession at an early stage of proceedings, his clean past history, the stress and anxiety he suffered from personal and financial issues, his experience of public contempt and ridicule and that he showed remorse was willing to issue a public apology. Although Bodi has not issued any statements, those were deemed mitigating enough to hand him a sanction of 20 years rather than a lengthier ban.”CSA thoroughly considered all the relevant factors and determined that a lengthy ban was appropriate. Our attitude to corruption will always be one of zero tolerance,” Lorgat said.CSA’s commitment to anti-corruption also compels them to consider whether to involve other authorities such as the police. “We abide by the law and jurisdiction of this country and whatever action needs to be taken will,” Louis von Zeuner, an independent board member of CSA, who is chair of the audit and risk committee, said.When news of Bodi’s involvement first broke on January 14, Brigadier Hangwani Mulaudzi, the spokesperson for the directorate for priority crime investigations, told ESPNcricinfo the police were aware of the investigation but had not received any information which would lead them a case. That may change if CSA provides them with Bodi’s confession. Under the Prevention and Combating of Corrupt Activities Law which was introduced in 2004, match-fixing is a crime in South Africa. The Brigadier was unavailable for comment on Monday afternoon.With the ongoing process still to run its course, Lorgat could not reassure fans that the game is clean, although he did not believe the problem was confined to South Africa. “It is not a categoric statement I can make now. The investigation is still ongoing,” he said. “I think it’s damaging to the reputation of cricket. The fact that it happened in South Africa just makes it that much more difficult in a South African environment. It happened in England. It happened with a Pakistan Test match at Lord’s. This is not unique to South Africa. We’ve said that for a long time.”
You don’t have to think too far back to remember the blissfully hedonistic days of a world ostensibly devoid of financial anxiety. The world’s population happily bought and sold gingerbread houses and indivisible candy-cane stocks and shares with mythical chocolate money.
And then BOOM. Moneygeddon. No one had remembered to ask whether the gumdrop tree was Fair Trade.
Since then, banks have attempted various superfluous rapprochements with the general public. The latest PR stunt coming from financial servicers JP Morgan is their calculation, using common Quantitive Models that predict upcoming trade opportunities, that Rooney, Defoe, Gerrard, Cole and Barry are all mathematically destined to be crowned world champions this summer.
The prediction, as Morgan admit themselves, should be taken with a pinch of salt; but their calculations do underline how vastly complex the current economic model is and their outcome – a victorious England – implies that, really, banks haven’t got a f****** clue what they’re doing.
The Quant Model Morgan utilise reads like MENSA pornography. Essentially, they have combined four sums of variables which in turn have two calculations each to reach a number that marks a teams probability of winning the coveted trophy.
So far so wha-? But, sensibly, the variables they use aren’t plucked from thin air. Morgan has included the team’s FIFA World Ranking, team form, pricing trends from bookmakers, team success ratios and historical success. Each of which are, somewhat, arbitrarily quantified as a certain percentage of the total probability sum – but, hey, when has random quantifications ever done any wrong to the banking system…
Not happy with just finding the numerical probability of a team’s success – which, incidentally, shockingly places Brazil and Spain at the top of the table – Morgan then intriguingly apply the model to the tournament’s predesigned layout and assign a group to each team based on their probability – Spain and Brazil, for example, are in group 8, while Japan (yes, Japan) and Korea are in group 1. They then play out the tournament with the highest group winning each tie; it’s kind’a like Top Trumps but with just one number to compare.
We’ll put the information download on hold a minute, because already there are some interesting results: Germany, despite their notorious efficacy at World Cup finals are ranked in group 6 – a group which is also home to the Ivory Coast and, amazingly, Chile. As a result, they get comfortably knocked out by Slovenia (group 7) in the last 16. Ok, it could happen, but it’s hard to see why Germany are at such a disadvantage – the Germans had no problems in qualifying and they typically managed to march into the semi-finals at the last World Cup.
But here is where the model truly begins to fall apart: According to Morgan, England are good at penalties. In fact, they are the best in the world. The model even predicts that Capello’s (not so) charismatic company will beat Spain in the final on penalties. And before that, the Dutch. No wonder the banks are in disarray. Here’s how: Morgan decided that the stalemate between two similarly grouped teams in the knock-out stages would be answered by yet another equation.
Defying logic altogether, Morgan chose for this equation to be determined by combining scoring ability and goalkeeping ability, neither of which have much of an impact on the outcome of a shoot-out and it ultimately flaws their entire model. It’s a decent attempt by Morgan, but their efforts illustrate just how practically impossible it is to apply a formula or statistics to football with a total disregard for the unquantifiable human element – it equally demonstrates how worryingly precarious the sums are that decide an economic fate.
For football, statistics have already been proven as an untrustworthy aid. From the 50’s to the early 80’s, football theorist Charles Reep used statistics to prove the effectiveness of the long ball. His findings were in total ignorance of the quality of the free-flowing passing teams of the 70’s such as Pele’s Brazil and Cruyff’s Netherlands.
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Resultantly, Reep’s beliefs and the illusory power of numbers severely hindered the advancement of English football during this period.
His theories have since been completely debunked. It’s just as well then that JP Morgan’s model comes with a significant disclaimer.
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