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You don’t have to think too far back to remember the blissfully hedonistic days of a world ostensibly devoid of financial anxiety. The world’s population happily bought and sold gingerbread houses and indivisible candy-cane stocks and shares with mythical chocolate money.

And then BOOM. Moneygeddon. No one had remembered to ask whether the gumdrop tree was Fair Trade.

Since then, banks have attempted various superfluous rapprochements with the general public. The latest PR stunt coming from financial servicers JP Morgan is their calculation, using common Quantitive Models that predict upcoming trade opportunities, that Rooney, Defoe, Gerrard, Cole and Barry are all mathematically destined to be crowned world champions this summer.

The prediction, as Morgan admit themselves, should be taken with a pinch of salt; but their calculations do underline how vastly complex the current economic model is and their outcome – a victorious England – implies that, really, banks haven’t got a f****** clue what they’re doing.

The Quant Model Morgan utilise reads like MENSA pornography. Essentially, they have combined four sums of variables which in turn have two calculations each to reach a number that marks a teams probability of winning the coveted trophy.

So far so wha-? But, sensibly, the variables they use aren’t plucked from thin air. Morgan has included the team’s FIFA World Ranking, team form, pricing trends from bookmakers, team success ratios and historical success. Each of which are, somewhat, arbitrarily quantified as a certain percentage of the total probability sum – but, hey, when has random quantifications ever done any wrong to the banking system…

Not happy with just finding the numerical probability of a team’s success – which, incidentally, shockingly places Brazil and Spain at the top of the table – Morgan then intriguingly apply the model to the tournament’s predesigned layout and assign a group to each team based on their probability – Spain and Brazil, for example, are in group 8, while Japan (yes, Japan) and Korea are in group 1. They then play out the tournament with the highest group winning each tie; it’s kind’a like Top Trumps but with just one number to compare.

We’ll put the information download on hold a minute, because already there are some interesting results: Germany, despite their notorious efficacy at World Cup finals are ranked in group 6 – a group which is also home to the Ivory Coast and, amazingly, Chile. As a result, they get comfortably knocked out by Slovenia (group 7) in the last 16. Ok, it could happen, but it’s hard to see why Germany are at such a disadvantage – the Germans had no problems in qualifying and they typically managed to march into the semi-finals at the last World Cup.

But here is where the model truly begins to fall apart: According to Morgan, England are good at penalties. In fact, they are the best in the world. The model even predicts that Capello’s (not so) charismatic company will beat Spain in the final on penalties. And before that, the Dutch. No wonder the banks are in disarray. Here’s how: Morgan decided that the stalemate between two similarly grouped teams in the knock-out stages would be answered by yet another equation.

Defying logic altogether, Morgan chose for this equation to be determined by combining scoring ability and goalkeeping ability, neither of which have much of an impact on the outcome of a shoot-out and it ultimately flaws their entire model. It’s a decent attempt by Morgan, but their efforts illustrate just how practically impossible it is to apply a formula or statistics to football with a total disregard for the unquantifiable human element – it equally demonstrates how worryingly precarious the sums are that decide an economic fate.

For football, statistics have already been proven as an untrustworthy aid. From the 50’s to the early 80’s, football theorist Charles Reep used statistics to prove the effectiveness of the long ball. His findings were in total ignorance of the quality of the free-flowing passing teams of the 70’s such as Pele’s Brazil and Cruyff’s Netherlands.

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Resultantly, Reep’s beliefs and the illusory power of numbers severely hindered the advancement of English football during this period.

His theories have since been completely debunked. It’s just as well then that JP Morgan’s model comes with a significant disclaimer.

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The elephant in the room at White Hart Lane is becoming a serious cause for concern for Tottenham Hotspur. Their lack of depth up front is threatening to undermine their start to the new Premier League season and the arduous sub-plot to the acquisition of Emmanuel Adebayor has become an energy-sapping nightmare.

But the truth is that Adebayor should have signed on the dotted line for Spurs ages ago. The big Togolese striker will not get a better footballing option than what is on offer at N17. He’s done so much to change what was a relatively damaged public perception. But events over the past few weeks have cast a real cloud over Adebayor. The omens do not feel good.

Emmanuel Adebayor’s initial loan switch to Spurs was greeted with more than a touch of scepticism at White Hart Lane. He has always appeared to be something of a controversial figure in the Premier League, but for many it was simply impossible to look past his time with the red half of North London.

Adebayor’s spell with Arsenal saw him well and truly vilified by Spurs supporters – so much so that only four months before he signed, the club had to appeal to fans to stop their malicious abuse of the forward, after controversial chants were aimed during their Champions League encounter with Real Madrid. Genuine bad blood had existed.

But on a purely footballing basis, Spurs fans knew just as well as anyone what he was capable of. Adebayor put Tottenham to bed in the Champions League with his two superb headers in 2011. During his time at Arsenal, the Togolese hitman continuously haunted his North London rivals, nailing eight against the Lilywhites during his time at the Emirates. Anyone who was at White Hart Lane in 2007 will remember his goal of the season for Arsenal in a comprehensive 3-1 win.

But more than anything, he represents a rare breed of Premier League striker, who has been proven to produce the goods. Adebayor took time to settle into English football, but when he did, he quickly became one the league’s more formidable target men. His ability to combine both physicality and astute hold up play with a neat finish and smattering of skill, represents the sort of striker who is sought after in the modern game – especially within the Premier League. His landmark of 24 goals for Arsenal in the 07-08 proved he can pull out a real goal scoring shift.

Adebayor’s ability, however, has never been in doubt. What has been called into question, on more than one occasion, is the striker’s persona and character. A fiery character, Adebayor isn’t quite of the mould of what one would perceive an ‘archetypal’ footballer to be like. He speaks both articulately and passionately and in his one season at White Hart Lane, he certainly seemed to be adored by his teammates. But that burning passion has often skewed his decision-making on the pitch.

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The now infamously distasteful knee slide against Arsenal when playing for Manchester City, is probably the zenith in the controversial career of Adebayor. But incidents such as stamping on Robin van Persie’s head, a training ground scrap with Kolo Toure and the public feud with Nicklas Bendtner that even turned physical on the pitch, have left a controversial watermark over Adebayor’s resume.

Some fans will allege that Adebayor can be a poisonous influence in a dressing room and before his move to Spurs, it felt as if he was running out of friends in the Premier League, fast. But despite the grievances of some Tottenham fans, Adebayor’s loan spell was more or less an overwhelming success. Football will always be a fickle game and if you put the ball in the back of the net 17 times, as Adebayor did for Spurs in the league, then much will be forgotten.

But there is the feeling that after giving Adebayor the platform to breathe life back into his Premier League career, that Spurs could be about to be bitten on the backside. It’s true that Tottenham arguably needed Adebayor as much as he needed them last term. But there was the feeling that a permanent deal was something of a formality at the back end of last season. It should have been, in footballing terms, anyway. As it stands, Spurs now look to be staring down the barrel and starting next season with only one recognised striker.

From whatever reports you wish to gauge, Adebayor has been offered a highly lucrative financial package at White Hart Lane, but for various reasons, he has still not signed. The current line is that Adebayor wants his transfer fee reimbursed back to his charity, which is all very well. No one is denying that his work back in Africa isn’t to be applauded and backed to the hilt – but to drag that into his protracted transfer is missing the point.

Adebayor was offered a once-in-a-lifetime contract at Manchester City. However fluctuated the market was, he was not and still is not worth wages of £170,000 a week. To perceive that as otherwise is completely warped. The fee Adebayor reportedly wishes to claim for his charity is based on the concept that he must be compensated for a loss in earnings he will undertake by going to Spurs.

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But City don’t owe Adebayor anything. A contract is a contract, but the concept of the Togolese refusing to leave City because they won’t donate £50,000 a week to his foundation seems absurd. If he feels that strongly about it, why doesn’t he donate his rumored £6 million signing on fee that he’d get at Spurs to the cause? Bringing the name of his charity into the argument does not vindicate his stance or give it any sense of morality.

Because ultimately, the proof will be in the pudding. If he doesn’t move to Tottenham Hotspur, than we will discover where his true motivations lie. He will not get a better purely footballing offer than what’s been offered at Spurs. He has no future at City, United and Chelsea have little need for him and there’s no point even mentioning Arsenal. He’s won over most Spurs fans and he’d still be made the club’s record earner after earning a mammoth signing-on fee.

Yet still, Adebayor hasn’t signed on the dotted line. Of course we don’t know the intricacies of the deal, but something feels wrong. Spurs are willing to make Adebayor a wealthy man and give him a footballing platform he won’t receive elsewhere. But if the big Togolese still doesn’t think that’s enough, then the writing may already be on the wall. Either way, Spurs must find the resolution to this soon – they have to sign a striker.

Are you sick of hearing Adebayor’s demands or do you feel that Tottenham now have to sign him? Let me know what you think, get involved in the Spurs talk on Twitter – follow @samuel_antrobus and bat me your views. 

Heurelho Gomes could be on his way out of Tottenham, according to the Daily Mail, with Corinthians set to make a January move for the out-of-favour goalkeeper.

The Brazilian has slipped down the pecking order at White Hart Lane after summer signing was installed as number one by manager Harry Redknapp at the start of the campaign.

Redknapp admitted that Gomes is likely to leave the club in the new year and revealed the 30-year-old is unhappy after effectively being relegated to third choice behind Carlo Cudicini.

“He’s not happy and he’s eyeing a January move. If the chance comes for him to play elsewhere, I’m sure he’ll take it.” the Spurs boss said.

“I’ve not bombed out Gomes and made him No three keeper but we decided Carlo Cudicini would be better on the bench.

“Gomes has trained hard but Friedel is fantastic. If ever there was a man who didn’t deserve those two beatings by Manchester United and Manchester City, it was him.”

A move back to his homeland with Corinthians could now be on the cards for the Brazilian who has suffered an indifferent spell during his time in England.

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After building up a decent reputation with PSV his time in North London will be remembered for a catalogue of high profile errors which have overshadowed some sparkling performances at White Hart Lane.

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Juventus manager Luigi Delneri was relieved his strikers could produce the goods in their 3-1 victory over Cagliari on Saturday.

The Italian boss had seen his side lose their past three games before the clash at Stadio Sant’Elia, scoring just twice in 270 minutes, but an Alessandro Matri brace plus a Luca Toni strike eased fears Juventus were without strike power.

“We always said that Juve paid the price for not having the right players in the right place, especially in the box,” Delneri said.

“Both (Jorge) Martinez and Milos Krasic did well interpreting their roles, but we changed to a 4-3-1-2 giving Alessandro Del Piero and Matri more freedom.”

“Do not forget that at Palermo (2-1 loss) we only had Martinez as a reserve in attack and he’s not really a forward. We should have Vincenzo Iaquinta back soon too, so it’s easier when you actually have strikers.”

“It’s not simple to win at Cagliari, so this result gives us great confidence for the future, even if we have to keep our feet on the ground. We know we’re on the right track.”

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The result created a gap mid-table in the Serie A, with Juve in eighth place on 38 points, six clear of Cagliari in ninth.

Arsenal are poised to announce the signing of Santi Cazorla after he passed a medical, whilst Arsene Wenger also wants Real Madrid’s Nuri Sahin on loan, reports The Guardian.

The Spanish winger is on the verge of a £16 million move from Malaga, after impressing in the Andalusian side’s advance to the Champions League qualification places in La Liga last term.

Cazorla is said to have passed a medical at the Emirates Stadium, with a move all but completed.

Meanwhile, Wenger is also set to approach Jose Mourinho about taking playmaker Sahin on a season-long loan deal.

The Turkey international moved to the Santiago Bernabeu last summer from Borussia Dortmund, but had a tough first season in Spain, not playing very regularly due to injury and the strength of the Madrid midfield.

With the likes of Sami Khedira, Kaka and Xabi Alonso ahead of Sahin Mourinho’s preferences and a move for Luka Modric being the Spanish champions’ number one priority this summer, the eastern European man is expected to play a bit-part role next term.

Mourinho has recently admitted that he would be willing to listen to offers for Sahin, and Arsenal are keen to bring him to north London.

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By Gareth McKnight

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Sergio Aguero is aiming to learn from Carlos Tevez’s mistakes in learning English to enable him to settle into life in Manchester. Aguero is determined to be a huge success in England and is prepared to everything he can to fit in and adjust to the different culture.

Elsewhere in the papers Arsene Wenger insists that he is no quitter; Fergie set to make a final Sneijder bid, while Fernandes considers a move away from Loftus Rd.

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I’m no quitter, says Wenger – Guardian

Mata on verge of £23.5m Chelsea move –Guardian

QPR’s Fernandes considers move from Loftus Road – Guardian

Man City ready to let £25m flop striker go for free – Mirror

Fergie to make final bid to bring Sneijder to United as midfielder has Inter time-out – Daily Mail

New boy Aguero is learning from Tevez trouble by studying English – Daily Mail

Life is Tweet again for Barton despite swipe at referee Webb – Daily Mail

Davies: Bolton cannot compete with big spenders – Mirror

Roy Hodgson emerging as candidate for England job – Mirror

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Ben Arfa eyes comeback a year after sustaining injury – People

Capello won’t drop Walcott after wingers comments – People

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In many respects the world has got a lot smaller in the last 40 years. Transport and communication has got quicker and easier, and a holiday in sunny Europe can cost you less than a dreary break in Blighty. This mentality of looking abroad over staying in England is a mindset that has stretched far beyond your average 2.4 child family; football clubs are also employing these tactics to sign young players more than ever before.

All of the top clubs in the Premier League have huge scouting networks that can take them all over the world from Abuja to Zagreb. In 2009, then Celtic manager Tony Mowbray declared that he would be looking further afield to find players: “I am trying to expand the scouting system that is in place. We are actively pursuing all parts of the world at the moment, including South America where some players have European passports”. Clubs are increasingly finding themselves left behind if they don’t pursue these widening avenues and a new emphasis is being put on signing promising players at a younger and younger age.

There have been numerous rules imposed by FIFA, UEFA and the FA to encourage teams to develop their academies instead of spending their way to success. They have been effective in the respect that teams now find themselves with stronger youth set-ups. But many of these laws have inadvertently resulted English clubs ignoring English talent for reasons of finance and practicality.

There are two rules that are set to have a big impact on the way that football teams trade in the transfer market. The Premier League’s 25 player squad rule was implemented at the start of the season and states that teams must have at least eight ‘home grown players in their squad. The other rule is UEFA’s financial fair play initiative which will impose European bans on teams who find themselves with large debts and who do not spend within their means.

The two rules together are encouraging teams to buy young players at small prices, with a decline in the big money moves with which we have become so accustomed. Even mega-rich Manchester City said that their capture of Edin Dzeko could signal their last big money signing for the foreseeable future.

However, far from reverting back to the old days of sourcing talent from the local area it is infact proving cheaper to sign teenagers from Europe than from down the road.

When a club tries to sign a young player from another English team compensation is decided by a tribunal if the two parties can not reach an agreement between themselves (and when the selling club is reluctant to let their most talented kids leave and the buying club wanting to pay as little as possible an agreement can be very difficult to come by). A tribunal can often drastically increase the fee of a player, in 2009 Everton were forced to pay a total of £1.7 million for 16 year-old Luke Garbutt – a lot of money for a player without a first team appearance to his name.

The FA also impose a rule on home-grown players which is called the ’90 minute rule’. It states that a youth player must not live further than 90 minutes away from the club which he plays for. While the rule is meant to stop big clubs poaching talent from smaller clubs, it is widely seen as more red-tape preventing young players from developing to their full potential and discouraging the big teams form making moves for English talent.

As a result of the FA’s rule over the transfer of youth players, teams are looking towards Europe where the rules are slightly different.

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The compensation which a team pays for a youth player from a European side is far cheaper than what they could have to pay in England. If a player is younger then 17 then a fee of €90,000 has to be paid for every year of development put in by the selling club, but if he is 18 then the amount of only €10,000. It is unsurprising that the U18 sides of many Premier League teams contain a high number of non-English players. Arsenal have 13 non-English players in their U18 squad, Manchester have 13 in their academy and Chelsea have seven. FIFA has imposed a ban on the transfer of players below the age of 18, however this rule does not extend to the European Union where the freedom of movement law applies.

The battle to find the talent before it reaches its peak always been competitive, but with the new rules in place it is due to hot-up even further. Manchester City have a worldwide scouting network which costs them £3 million every year, yet City’s technical director Mike Rigg still deems his youth set-up to be 10 years behind Arsenal and Manchester United. It would be difficult for the FA to change their rules without playing into the hands of the big boys. After the transfer of John Bostock from Crystal Palace, then chairman Simon Jordan was bitter towards the tribunal system for not ordering a larger fee to be paid: “I feel mugged and brutalised, it is scandalous, and this sends a message to smaller clubs. Why bother to bring players through if tribunals cannot reflect the work that has gone in?”.

Young players need to be developed so that they can reach their potential and excel at the highest level of football. However it is difficult to do this without leaving one party feeling as if they have been ripped off, and the lower leagues need to be protected just as much as clubs in the Premier League. But until a middle ground can be reached this foreign trend looks set to continue.

Tottenham fans have been discussing the form of club captain Hugo Lloris, after the Frenchman made another error in Saturday’s win at Stoke.

Hugo Lloris made his 200th Premier League appearance for Tottenham this weekend, but the fan favourite has come under some criticism recently for his less than confident performances.

The 31 year-old moved to North London from Lyon in 2012, and has been an absolute brick wall since making the goalkeeper spot his own, yet his performances just seem to have dropped a level or two in the last 18 months.

The Stoke goal on Saturday was more bad luck than it was bad goalkeeping, as Lloris’s clearance ricocheted off Mame Biram Diouf and landed right in front of the Senegalese striker to equalise.

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Of course, Spurs went on to win the match courtesy of Christian Eriksen (or not if you believe Harry Kane), but nonetheless fans are growing increasingly concerned about the form of Lloris.

The French stopper now has five errors leading to goals this season, which is the second most in the league behind Petr Cech’s six.

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He got caught under the ball for Chelsea’s opener in last weekend’s epic clash at Stamford Bridge, but fans are finding it hard to turn on a player they love so much.

Some of the best Twitter reactions can be found below…

In Angel Di Maria’s maiden season with Manchester United the Argentine has had very mixed fortunes. He started the season full of confidence, but now cuts a very lost figure. As the season comes to an end and clubs naturally look to the summer window, there is already speculation as to whether Di Maria will still be at United for next season.

Signed for a then British record of £59.7million, Di Maria joined United in August of last year. After four successful years at Real Madrid, which included winning La Decima, their highly coveted 10th Champions League trophy, Di Maria left the Spanish giants in order to find more playing time.

With the legendary number seven on his shirt Di Maria appeared to be fitting into his role quite nicely, even picking up United’s Player of the Month award for September and further confirming his positive impact during his first few months at the club.

Unfortunately, a hamstring injury suffered in late November put the player on the side-lines where he made only one substitute appearance from the following seven fixtures.

Since returning from that injury. Di Maria isn’t quite the same player who had previously been a highlight of United’s midfield. A lack of form on field and a burglary at his Manchester home made for a bad start to 2015. Then the typically composed Di Maria received a red card for an altercation with referee Michael Oliver and was slapped with a one match ban.

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The timing couldn’t have been worse as United were about to enter a difficult run of games that included Tottenham and Liverpool. Manager Louis van Gaal, who has been very supportive of the winger, took the opportunity to change the formation and opted for a 4-1-4-1 with Wayne Rooney up front and the regularly side-lined Juan Mata given the playmaker role. United performed exceptionally well with high accolades going to the Spaniard.

Even once Di Maria was available to play, Van Gaal chose to start with Mata for their trip to Anfield and Mata further reasserted his place as United’s playmaker by scoring two goals in their 2-1 win over top four rivals Liverpool.

Now during the international break United sit comfortably in fourth, but Di Maria’s future remains uncertain. The Argentina international came to United with the intention of playing regularly, but if Van Gaal continues to favour Mata or in form Ashley Young then the Argentine may quickly feel the need to throw in the towel.

Sources say that if Di Maria does decide that his United experiment was a failure then the club are ready to offer Paris Saint Germain’s Edinson Cavani a route in to to English football.

This sounds like crazy talk. Di Maria signed a huge five-and-a-half year deal just seven months ago and he has at times shown exactly why the club forked out so much for him. Cavani is having his own problems at PSG and a deal may suit him, but with only eight Ligue 1 goals this season, one more than Di Maria, what would they really be getting? United are better off persuading Di Maria to hold tight for at least one more season.

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Van Gaal’s side had been crying out for more creativity in their midfield and now that they have these two top players in Di Maria and Mata, they need to keep them and find a way to get them both playing together. It is only because Di Maria’s form has dipped and United are so close to qualifying for Europe why Van Gaal doesn’t want to mess with a winning formula.

But Cavani, nor anyone else that United are supposedly lining up, are no replacement for the vision and quality of Angel Di Maria and United would be foolish to think otherwise.

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Boss Mauricio Pochettino claims there is no ill-feeling between himself and the former Southampton manager Nigel Adkins.

The Argentine replaced Adkins in controversial circumstances back in January just after his predecessor had overseen a 2-2 draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and with Saints enjoying a decent run of form.

But since the ex-Espanyol boss took over he has led the club to notable victories over the likes of Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea.

Adkins returns to St Mary’s on Saturday, however, with his new club Reading after he took over from Brian McDermott at the Madejski Stadium when the 51-year-old was sacked last month.

“I have no problem with Nigel Adkins,” Pochettino told the Sun.

“I have full respect for him and for what he achieved at Southampton.”

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Adkins’ and his assistant manager Andy Crosby’s main issue is thought to be with Saints executive chairman Nicola Cortese, with the terms of their release still thought to be unsettled.

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